What will the health of the UK population be like by 2040?
BY TIM SANDLE
Making predictions can be fraught with difficulty;
however, working out the main diseases and health threats helps
governments to plan ahead. An interesting exercise has been undertaken
in the U.K.
The prediction takes the form of an article written for the medical journal The Lancet
("Health of the UK population in 2040.") The article details predictive
modeling performed by the U.K. Academy of Medical Sciences, who have
been exploring the main health challenges for the U.K. population will
be in 2040.
The three most important challenges will not come as a surprise to regular readers of Digital Journal's health pages. They are:
The rise in obesity and non-communicable diseases; The demands of an ageing population; The emergence of antibiotic resistance.The rise in obesity is a real problem, with government now directing most of its resources to wards schools in a bid to educate children (perhaps in a sign that the older population are a lost cause). The biggest risk from the rise in obesity is the development of type 2 diabetes. According to The Daily Telegraph, in the U.K. "more than 3.3 million people have the condition in some form, an increase of one million in a decade." With an ageing population, the risks are a greater demand on medical services and a rise in dementia related illnesses. With the U.K. National Health Service, it is estimated of the budget goes on treating and caring for those aged 65 years and older. With dementia, although rates could be stabilizing in Europe, older people need to diet, take regular exercise sessions, undertake brain training and have health check-ups in order to lower the risk factors. With antibiotic resistance, Digital Journal has covered this issue in detail. Here we wrote: "Humans face the very real risk of a future without antibiotics. The implications of this are that life expectancy could fall due to people dying from diseases that are readily treatable today." In essence, medics need to restrict antibiotic use to only when absolutely necessary and investment, led by governments, is needed for new drug types. The Lancet findings might be unexpected, but they will be more devastating if action is not taken and the warnings do not form part of health policy going forwards.
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